Confirmation Bias
Seeking out information that supports a position while discounting evidence against it.
Also called: seeking confirmation
In plain language
Once a position exists, the mind starts working for it. Supporting evidence feels compelling and contradictory evidence feels like noise.
It shows up as switching timeframes until one looks bullish, adding indicators until one agrees, and dismissing structure breaks as anomalies.
The defense is mechanical rather than psychological: define invalidation before entering, and let the level decide rather than your interpretation.
Why it matters
Confirmation bias is what turns a small planned loss into a large unplanned one, by supplying reasons to ignore the exit you already set.
Common mistakes
- Changing the analysis timeframe after entry to justify holding.
- Adding indicators until one supports the position.
- Dismissing a structure break as a false signal without predefined criteria.
Keep exploring
These concepts are connected. Understanding one usually makes the next one easier.
The pattern of highs and lows that describes whether a market is trending or ranging.
A written set of rules defining what you trade, how you size it, and when you exit.
A predefined exit that closes a losing trade before the loss becomes serious.
The period each candle on a chart represents, from one minute to one month.
Overweighting recent outcomes when judging what is likely to happen next.